The capital call arrives. Which entity is short?
Commitments are signed by one entity and funded by another’s cash, on a date the manager picks. Most families learn which entity runs short in the week the notice lands. FULCRUM answers it now, entity by entity, across thousands of simulated markets, and hands your own staff everything they need to check the answer without us.
A public key, one synthetic family, the production system. The first number takes one line in a terminal.
This answer was computed on the production system. Run the line and you get the same fingerprint.
Every entity covers its own calls from what it holds today.
Cash each entity would need to cover its peak net outflow in 95 of 100 simulated futures, under a crisis regime that arrives with probability 0.05 a quarter and makes every shock 3× its calm size. Beside it, the same figure under normal tails, and the mean of the worst 5%.
| Entity | Liquid today | Needs, fat tails | Needs, normal tails | Worst 5% (mean) | Short by | Convex to stress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alder Holdings LLC | $11,526,794 | $301,551 | $339,235 | $572,438 | covered | yes: the harm accelerates |
| Alder Family Trust | $37,538,577 | $3,174,766 | $3,204,310 | $3,364,229 | covered | yes: the harm accelerates |
The fat tail shows in the worst 5% before it shows in the 95% figure: the answer says so itself when it happens. Engine e67542034c7a…; the same line returns the same fingerprint until a declared change of method.
curl -s -H "Authorization: Bearer pa_live_tKS9QsWktZz43k5lIeulnyXM5_F-DhcDhsCGtqrSjn4" "https://paretoalphasystems.com/api/v1/pacing?asOf=2026-06-30&knownAt=2026-09-21T18%3A24%3A17.951Z&paths=2000&quarters=20&seed=20260921&tails=fat&sensitivity=on"What the book looks like from here forward.
What would each entity have to be able to pay?
Every fund, every unfunded commitment, the cash each entity would need at the confidence you choose, and the chance today’s liquid assets fall short. By entity, because the trust cannot pay the LLC’s call.
Where is one risk held in three entities?
Each entity looks diversified on its own statement. Added up through the ownership chain, one bet can be most of the family’s risk. FULCRUM shows where, how much, and how sure it is.
What does raising it cost after tax, lot by lot?
You have decided to raise the cash. The order of the lots decides the tax. The cheapest order, the lots left alone and why, exact to the cent. Arithmetic on your own lots, and nothing is sold.
Four things it could be mistaken for, and is not.
| It is not | Because |
|---|---|
| Advice | It measures and projects under stated assumptions. It never says what a family ought to do. |
| Order routing | Nothing leaves it addressed to a custodian or a broker. It holds no credential that could place a trade. |
| A forecast | A range under listed assumptions is not a prediction of any one outcome. Each answer says so. |
| A system that holds money | It reads the book the family loaded. It executes nothing and holds no assets. |
A wrong number is worse than an outage. We monitor for both.
The same question, the same answer. Always.
Every answer carries its date, what was known on that date, and its fingerprint. Ask again next year as the book was known today: identical. No look-ahead reaches a backtest.
Every ten minutes, fixed questions, pinned answers.
An outside monitor asks production the same questions around the clock. If an answer moves without a declared change of method, it alarms. Availability is committed at 99.5% a month with credits, against a 99.9% target. The promise sits below the target until the record earns more.
The worst quarters are several times worse than a normal law allows.
Ask for them and every fund shares the crisis. Ask for the sensitivity and the same futures are re-run under other tails and larger shocks, so you see what the figure owes to each assumption instead of arguing about it.
A signature is only as good as the key’s lifecycle.
A sealed analysis carries its statement, an Ed25519 signature and the key id. The public keys are published with their validity windows and a hash of the set; a seal dated outside its key’s window is flagged, and every seal joins a chain anchored nightly with an independent timestamp.
The service credit is arithmetic on the monitor’s record.
Per calendar month the status page shows the probes, the failures, the failures the commitment allows and what is left of that budget, and the credit the terms owe at that availability. Not negotiated afterwards.
Everything exports. The reasoning too.
The family owns its data. Any table, any answer, as a file, at any time, with the fingerprint of the exact bytes on record. 90 days of read-only access after you leave.
Three seats, named for the reader.
A family member or trustee. Headline projections with their ranges, the entity that is short, and approvals signed with a passkey, in the portal on a phone or a desk. No parameters: the house assumptions, printed.
The family's own CIO, CFO, controller and analysts. The whole engine: simulations with seed and path control, full tables with standard errors, lot lists, the bitemporal record of marks and fund flows, exports and the read-only API. Includes two Principal seats.
The family's registered investment adviser, designated in writing by the family. Read-only: the family's sealed analyses, addressed to the adviser, in the portal and as JSON. Any advice to the family is the adviser's own, and any order is created by the adviser in the adviser's own systems. Never a custodian or a broker.
For a family already on the platform. Annual is eleven months for twelve. An additional Principal seat beyond the two included is $750 a month. 25 sealed analyses a month come with the CIO seat; each one beyond is $80, on the same invoice, never refused. A principal buys a seat by card from the portal, and it opens when payment clears; by invoice on request. Prices exclude sales tax. The one-page terms arrive before any call.
Is this investment advice?
No. It measures the book the family loaded and projects it under assumptions it lists. It never says what a family ought to do. Any advice is the family's adviser's own, formed under the adviser's own duties.
Can it place a trade or move money?
No, and not because of a setting. The platform holds no trading credential and no custody credential, so it could not send an order if asked. Nothing leaves it addressed to a custodian or a broker.
Is a projection a forecast?
No. A projection here is a range of outcomes under stated assumptions, across thousands of simulated markets. It is not a prediction of any one outcome, and every answer says so in the answer itself.
How do we know a number is right?
Ask the same question twice and the answer is identical, down to its fingerprint. Ask it next year, as the book was known today, and it is identical again. Your own staff can recompute the fingerprint with sixty lines of standard-library code we publish. An outside monitor asks production fixed questions every ten minutes and alarms if any answer moves without a declared change of method.
What happens when you change a method?
It is entered in the change log at least 10 business days before it ships. The correction of an error ships at once and is entered the same day. An answer sealed under an earlier method stays replayable under that method.
Is it one of the five frameworks?
No. IGNITION, BEDROCK, FORTRESS, SIGNAL and AXIOM read the book as it stands. FULCRUM reads the same book forward. It is a separate subscription for a family that already has the platform, and the day-thirty guarantee does not depend on it.
Why trust a new engine with the family's numbers?
Because every figure can be checked on your side before you rely on it: a public sandbox on the production system, the methods written out, every figure reproducible, and the monitor's record published. It is live on production and measured from outside every ten minutes; the sandbox you call is that same system.
What does it cost?
Per seat, by who reads it: Principal $1,500 a month, CIO and Family Office Staff $8,000 a month, Adviser of Record $2,500 a month; annual is eleven months for twelve. 25 sealed analyses a month come with the CIO seat and each one beyond is $80, never refused. A principal buys a seat by card from the portal and it opens when payment clears, or by invoice. The terms fit on one page: prices, a renewal cap, the service commitment with credits, change control, data exit.
What does the answer owe to its assumptions?
It tells you. Ask for the sensitivity and the same simulated futures are re-run under normal, stated and heavier tails, and under shocks at half, one and one-and-a-half times their size. You see what the buffer and the worst-case average owe to each, and whether the harm accelerates with the shock. A fat tail shows in the worst 5% before it shows in the 95% figure, and the answer says so when that happens.
Which commitment worries you?
Write it below. We send the one-page terms first, then run the question on your own book.